Hormuz Day 118 — Reopening Slowly Advances Under the June 17 Deal, but a Dual-Route, Mined Strait Caps the Recovery (June 26): Transits Are Climbing — CENTCOM and Independent Trackers Logged 62 Vessels Through the Strait on June 24 (21 Inbound, 41 Outbound) Against a Pre-War Baseline North of 100/Day — yet the Central Deep-Water Channel Stays Closed With an Estimated ~80 Mines Still to Clear (Roughly 40–50 Days of Work), Vessels Must Now Choose Between an Iran-Controlled Northern Route and a US-Backed Southern Corridor, the IRGC Insists Safe Passage Is Only Valid Through Tehran-Designated Lanes, and Brent Has Slid to ~$72–74/bbl — At or Below the February 27 Pre-War Close of $72.48
Five-plus weeks into the IRGC's formal closure and nine days after the Versailles/Islamabad MoU, the strait is now best described as "reopening but constrained": daily transits are recovering (62 vessels June 24) but remain well below the ~100+/day pre-war norm, and two structural brakes persist — roughly 80 uncleared mines keeping the central deep-water channel shut for an estimated 40–50 more days, and a contested dual-transit regime in which Iran asserts that only its designated northern lanes are valid while the US backs a southern corridor. Brent has fully unwound the war premium, settling around $72–74/bbl at or below the pre-war close. Direct read-across for Jefferson Health Q3 2026 PAR planning: shift the base case from "closed/contested" toward a slow phased recovery, but keep the structural-rewire assumption live for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models — mine-clearance timelines, the IRGC permit/route regime, and restored war-risk/P&I cover, not the diplomatic headline, will gate when freight and insurance economics actually normalize.
Jun 26, 2026
Supply Chain Relevant