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Trump walks back the 20% Hormuz cargo toll a day after announcing it — the strait "is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran" — while the reinstated blockade of Iranian ports stands (July 14–15, Washington Post / CNBC / Washington Times) — the IMO said there is "no legal basis" for mandatory tolls through an international strait and Hapag-Lloyd called the plan "fundamentally wrong"; Sunday transits fell to just 14 ships (four crude tankers) vs 37 a week earlier, so the physical-risk picture — war-risk premiums, withdrawn P&I cover, suppressed commercial-cargo flow — is unchanged even with the toll off the table; keep elevated PARs and alternate-lane routings for sterile supply, devices, and pharma-API

July 15 rate round locks in the freight surge — CMA CGM's Asia–Europe FAK jumps to $7,000/FEU ($7,900–$8,500 Asia–Med) and transpacific carriers push GRIs of $2,000–$3,000/FEU effective the same day, with Shanghai–LA at ~$6,482/FEU and Shanghai–NY at ~$7,904/FEU as Drewry expects rates to stay firm (July 15, Drewry / Lloyd's List / Sourcing Journal) — Cape routings by all nine top carriers plus peak-season frontloading plus Hormuz war-risk costs are compounding into 22-month-high ocean rates; flag to Finance for FY27 landed-cost assumptions on Asia-lane med-surg, devices, and equipment

Trump reinstates the US blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14, 4pm ET) and announces a 20% toll "on all cargo shipped" through the Strait of Hormuz, calling the US the waterway's "guardian" — the US completes a third consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets while Iran hits two UAE tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, with cruise missiles, killing an Indian crew member and wounding eight; Brent runs from ~$84.23 (+6.3%) Monday to ~$86.54 Tuesday (July 13–14, CNBC / Bloomberg / Claims Journal) — the most kinetically active phase of the crisis yet, with the ~6 commodity carriers that transited Sunday all running dark and 8M+ barrels moving only with US military assistance; the toll turns transit itself into a contested-revenue question stacked on ~8× war-risk premiums — a structurally different landed-cost picture for sterile supply, devices, and pharma-API, not merely a delayed recovery

Hormuz Day 134 — Iran formally re-declares the strait closed "until further notice," Trump declares the June 17 ceasefire over and reimposes oil sanctions, and the US launches a third round of strikes after a Cyprus-flagged containership is attacked; the IRGC says it hit a second vessel and struck US carrier-logistics and fueling platforms at Duqm, Oman plus a US base in Qatar, and Brent jumps +4.0% in 24h to ~$79 (July 12–13, gCaptain / Bloomberg / Straits Live) — JMIC and NAVCENT hold the threat level at SEVERE but say the southern Omani-coast route is still open and now runs two-way, so the strait is contested rather than sealed; the operative numbers: transits at 34/day (39% of the ~88/day baseline, PortWatch Jul 5), war-risk cover at ~8× pre-crisis with six P&I clubs withdrawn, all nine top container carriers suspended/limited/rerouting via the Cape, and prediction markets pricing "normal traffic by July 31" at 3% — the structural-rewire assumption is now the base case, not the downside: hold elevated PARs and alternate-lane routings for sterile supply, devices, and pharma-API, and stop gating plans on ceasefire headlines that have failed twice

Hormuz sees its biggest attack day since the peace deal — the Saudi VLCC Wedyan and the Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat are hit by projectiles off Oman, the US Treasury revokes Iran's oil-sales license with a sanctions snapback effective July 17, and CENTCOM strikes Iranian military sites near the strait (July 7–8, Bloomberg / Al Jazeera / UANI) — the Al Rekayyat was evacuated after an engine-room fire put it at risk of exploding, Tehran claimed the ship "ignored warnings," and the snapback now collides with the July 19 US blockade-lift deadline under the Bürgenstock MOU — the de-escalation sequencing that underpinned every recovery forecast is in open doubt, so hold elevated PARs and alternate-lane routings for sterile supply, devices, and pharma-API

Hormuz Day 133 — the strait is again effectively closed to commercial shipping as daily transits collapse from ~35 (July 7) to 17 (July 9) to just 11 across all of July 10, with three inbound tankers running fully dark and Brent holding near ~$76 (July 10–12, Straits Live / CENTCOM) — the June recovery has reversed: no lane is declared mine-free, a verified corridor is still an estimated two months out, underwriters continue withholding normal war-risk/P&I cover, and the escalation cycle has restored February-style transit levels — treat the phased-recovery assumption as broken and gate any Q3 PAR-planning unwind on a declared mine-free corridor and restored cover, not diplomatic headlines

Hormuz Day 129 — allied mine-clearance grinds on with no lane yet declared mine-free; ~27 escorted transits vs the ~84/day baseline and Brent eases to ~$72 (July 7, Straits Live / CENTCOM / Reuters) — US, UK and French sweepers keep working the international lane but no military authority has declared any portion of the Traffic Separation Scheme mine-free, container and general-cargo flow (the lanes carrying sterile supply, devices, and pharma-API) stays a fraction of normal, and underwriters still withhold normal war-risk/P&I cover pending verified clearance — hold the phased-recovery / structural-rewire assumption and gate any PAR-planning unwind on a declared mine-free lane and restored cover, not the day count or easing crude

Hormuz tanker exits briefly touch the pre-war range as Morgan Stanley logs ~35 oil/gas tankers leaving in a day and Brent slips to ~$70.78 — but commercial cargo flow stays stuck at ~5–10% of pre-February levels and Iran now says it will "definitely" charge a transit fee (July 6, Straits Live / Morgan Stanley / Al Jazeera) — energy carriers are moving at close to normal volume for the first time since the crisis, easing oil-feedstock cost pressure, yet the container and general-cargo lanes that actually carry sterile supply, medical devices, and pharma-API remain a fraction of baseline under naval escort, the central deep-water channel is still mined and closed, and Tehran floating a Hormuz transit fee (with "special treatment" for friendly nations) adds a new landed-cost and access-politics variable — gate any PAR-planning unwind on restored commercial-cargo throughput and war-risk/P&I cover, not on a single-day tanker spike

Doha technical teams shift focus from Iran's nuclear file to Strait-of-Hormuz shipping security as the strike pause holds (July 1, Straits Live / Reuters / CBS) — US and Iranian delegations are meeting separately with Qatari mediators to sequence implementation: the order in which the US lifts the naval blockade, Iran begins mine clearance, and sanctions relief is triggered; commercial traffic still crawls at ~5 escorted transits vs the ~93/day pre-crisis baseline, the central deep-water channel stays mined and closed with ~80 mines to clear, and Xeneta still sees no full supply-chain recovery before mid-September — sequencing talks are a precondition, not a flow recovery: keep the structural-rewire assumption live for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models

US and Iran open direct talks in Doha as both sides hold the strike pause; Hormuz traffic stays depressed and Brent firms to ~$74 (June 30, CNN / AA / Reuters) — US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha for negotiations Trump announced after the June 28 strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain (one Qatari killed); trackers logged just over two dozen transits in the prior 24 hours (~6 tankers + 8 cargo ships out, 5 tankers + 6 cargo ships in) against a ~93/day pre-crisis baseline; the central deep-water channel remains mined and closed and Brent firmed back to ~$74.06/bbl on lingering risk; Drewry's WCI rose 5% to $4,169/40ft for the week of June 25 (a 22-month high) and Xeneta does not expect full supply-chain recovery before mid-September — talks reopening is a sentiment shift, not a flow recovery: keep the structural-rewire assumption live for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models

US and Iran halt attacks and agree to resume Strait of Hormuz talks in Doha as traffic crawls under naval escort (June 29, Straits Live / AA / Reuters) — both sides paused strikes after the 48-hour tit-for-tat cycle (EVER LOVELY Jun 25, M/T Kiku Jun 27, CENTCOM counter-strikes, Iranian fire on Bahrain/Kuwait Jun 28) and set Doha negotiations; PortWatch logged just ~5 transits vs. a ~93/day pre-crisis baseline; Iran's FM Araghchi warned any external interference will delay reopening and asserted Tehran holds sole transit authority; Shanghai-to-Jebel Ali box rates have quadrupled past $8,000, war-risk insurance sits at ~8.0x pre-crisis, and Brent eased ~3.9% to ~$73.49 on the diplomatic signal — a sentiment shift, not a flow recovery: keep the structural-rewire assumption live for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models

ESCALATION — Iran launches drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait, threatens "complete halt" to peace talks (June 28, CBS News / NBC / CBC / Al Jazeera / Tribune India) — Iran's IRGC struck Bahrain (residential building damaged near the airport, top floor destroyed) and Kuwait (2 ballistic missiles intercepted, no casualties) in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian military targets; the IRGC claimed responsibility, saying it targeted Al Asad Air Base in Kuwait; Iran's top diplomat warned that any attempt to bypass Strait of Hormuz routes agreed with the US would "increase tensions" and explicitly threatened a "complete halt" to negotiations if US strikes continue — the widest geographic spread of Iranian strikes since the war began, extending the conflict to sovereign Gulf-state territory and raising the risk of a broader regional conflagration that could disrupt port operations, air cargo, and insurance cover well beyond the strait itself

US strikes 10+ Iranian military targets after IRGC drone hits M/T Kiku tanker near the Strait of Hormuz (June 27–28, NPR / CNBC / Fox News / CNN / RFE/RL / Maritime Executive) — the Panama-flagged crude tanker Kiku (2M+ bbl, Greek-owned) was hit by an Iranian one-way drone at 4:30 a.m. ET ~22nm off Ras Al Khaimah, UAE — the second vessel struck on the JMIC-designated "safe" Omani corridor in 48 hours after EVER LOVELY on June 25; CENTCOM responded by hitting Iranian surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities at multiple locations; Trump posted the strikes were in response to "continued aggression against commercial shipping" and warned Iran to honor the ceasefire or face consequences — the tit-for-tat cycle is now: ship strike → US counter-strike → Iranian retaliation on Gulf-state capitals

Freight rates hit 22-month high as two IRGC ship strikes in 48 hours prove the JMIC-designated "safe" Omani corridor is not safe (June 28, TechTimes / Mighty Shipping / Freightos) — ocean freight reaches levels not seen since September 2024; the EVER LOVELY (Jun 25) and Kiku (Jun 27) attacks both landed on the only US-backed transit route; the JMIC threat level is "substantial"; major container lines are not resuming normal commercial schedules; shipowners broadly report they are not reassured; the rate spike stacks on top of early peak-season demand pull-forward and the Drewry WCI's multi-week upward trend as a third independent cost-escalation layer — the "safe route isn't safe" confidence shock is now a distinct landed-cost input for Q3 2026 sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and PPE container-move forecasting

JMIC widens the Omani coastal corridor for simultaneous inbound/outbound traffic, directly challenging Iran's control over Hormuz transit (June 27, LiveUAMap / JMIC / Wikipedia Hormuz crisis) — the Joint Maritime Information Center announced a widened route through the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, allowing increased naval traffic in both directions; Iran's IRGC responded that any vessels using non-Tehran-designated lanes "face consequences," and backed the threat by striking two ships on the widened corridor within 48 hours — the corridor widening is a direct challenge to Iran's assertion of sovereignty over strait navigation, and the immediate IRGC response makes it a live flashpoint rather than a resolution

Hormuz Day 120 — mines and a contested dual-transit regime keep full normalization out of reach as traffic stays cautious after the June 25 strike (June 28, gCaptain / straits.live) — supertankers are moving again under an IRGC daily-quota system and a UN-facilitated crew evacuation is underway, but the central deep-water channel stays shut with ~80 mines still to clear (est. 40–50 days), vessels must still pick between an Iran-controlled northern route and a US-backed southern corridor, the IRGC's June 26 "unauthorized transits face consequences" warning still stands, and ~500 ships (incl. ~220 tankers) remain parked in the Gulf awaiting passage with Brent holding ~$72–74/bbl; "ships moving under quota" is not normalization — gate any unwind of the phased-recovery / structural-rewire assumption on mine-clearance, a settled route/permit regime, and restored war-risk/P&I cover, not on transit-count snapshots

Hormuz Day 119 — a June 25 vessel strike off Oman snaps the fragile recovery and re-inflates the war premium (June 27, straits.live / CBS News / IMO) — the Singapore-flagged container ship EVER LOVELY was hit by a projectile ~7.5nm SE of Dahit, Oman (bridge damage, no casualties), prompting the IMO to immediately suspend the southern seafarer-evacuation corridor (11,000+ crew stranded since February); Iran's IRGC warns June 26 that vessels transiting without Tehran's authorization "face consequences," and Brent bounces back up from the ~$72 pre-war lows it had briefly reclaimed; a single strike re-pricing the whole corridor is the clearest evidence yet that the recovery is reversible — hold the phased-recovery / structural-rewire assumption for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models until verified transits and restored war-risk/P&I cover sustainably clear ~50% of the ~94/day baseline for multiple consecutive weeks

Hormuz Day 118 — reopening advances under the June 17 deal, but a mined, dual-route strait caps the recovery (June 26, straits.live / hormuztracking.com / CENTCOM) — transits are climbing (62 vessels June 24: 21 inbound, 41 outbound) yet stay well below the 100+/day pre-war norm; the central deep-water channel remains closed with ~80 mines still to clear (est. 40–50 days), vessels must choose between an Iran-controlled northern route and a US-backed southern corridor, the IRGC insists only Tehran-designated lanes are valid, and Brent has slid to ~$72–74/bbl — at or below the February 27 pre-war close of $72.48; shift the Q3 2026 PAR base case toward a slow phased recovery but keep the structural-rewire assumption live for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models, because mine-clearance, the IRGC permit/route regime, and restored war-risk/P&I cover — not the headline — will gate when freight and insurance economics normalize

Hormuz Day 115 — status "contested but open" into a sixth day of declaration-vs-traffic divergence (June 24, straits.live / hormuztracking.com / CENTCOM) — the IRGC's June 20 re-declaration of closure still stands on paper, but US CENTCOM maintains the strait "never closed," Iran's own foreign ministry says shipping is "operating normally," and independent AIS trackers log roughly 23 transits Tuesday against the ~93/day pre-war baseline; the US–Iran communication line agreed June 21 continues to hold through the 60-day window without resolving terms, and Brent stays below $79/bbl — a sustained declaration-vs-traffic split is itself the planning input: hold the phased-recovery / structural-rewire assumption for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models, and treat any "reopened" or "closed" headline as reversible until verified transits sustainably clear ~50% of the ~94/day baseline for multiple consecutive weeks

Hormuz Day 114 — status still "contested" as Bürgenstock talks reach Day 2 (June 23, straits.live / hormuztracking.com / CENTCOM) — the IRGC's June 20 re-declaration of closure still stands on paper, but US CENTCOM (55 transits Saturday), Iran's own foreign ministry ("operating normally"), and independent AIS feeds (~30 vessels in the strait area) all show traffic flowing; a US–Iran de-confliction channel agreed June 21 is keeping negotiations alive without resolving terms — a fifth-plus day of declaration-vs-traffic divergence means the noise remains the planning input: hold the phased-recovery / structural-rewire assumption for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models and treat any "reopened" headline as reversible until verified transits sustainably clear ~50% of the ~94/day baseline for multiple consecutive weeks

Hormuz Day 113 — declaration vs. observed traffic splits three ways (June 21, straits.live / hormuztracking.com / Windward) — Iran's IRGC keeps the strait declared "closed" (citing alleged US/Israeli breaches of the June 17 Islamabad MoU), Iran's own foreign ministry says commercial shipping is "operating normally," and US CENTCOM reports 55 vessels transited Thursday and sees "no evidence of a physical closure"; ~550 ships remain stranded on either side, war-risk hull premiums hold at 1–5%, and analysts still model ~4 months to full normalization — when the closure signal is this noisy, the noise is the planning input: hold the phased-recovery / structural-rewire assumption for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models until verified transits sustainably clear ~50% of the ~94/day baseline for multiple consecutive weeks

Iran re-declares the Strait of Hormuz closed less than 48 hours after reopening (June 20–21, CNBC / Newsweek / Stars and Stripes / Seatrade / J-Post) — Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya command says the strait is closed again, citing US "bad faith" and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon (which killed at least 16) as breaches of the June 18 Islamabad MoU; the US military disputes the claim and says the waterway "remains open" and is being monitored; VP Vance flies to Switzerland for emergency talks with Iranian negotiators; ~20 tankers had transited Thursday (highest since June 2) before outbound traffic stalled again — the on-again/off-again whipsaw is itself the planning input: hold the structural-rewire / phased-recovery assumption for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models and treat any reopening as reversible until traffic sustainably clears ~50% of the ~94/day baseline

Hormuz Day 111 — the reopening stalls; "closing again" (June 19–20, CNN / straits.live / hormuztracking.com) — after the 14-point US-Iran settlement reopened the strait toll-free, only ~25 ships exited Thursday before outbound traffic slowed back to zero on Jun 19–20; CNN: "The Strait of Hormuz is closing again — few ships were leaving the waterway in the first place"; ~550 vessels remain stranded on either side, commercial throughput still 5–10% of the pre-Feb baseline, and analysts estimate ~4 months to full normalization as mine-clearance, war-risk insurance surcharges, P&I cover, and crew changes all gate recovery — hold the phased-recovery / structural-rewire assumption for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models until traffic sustainably clears ~50% of the ~94/day baseline

SpaceX debuts on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX at $135/share — described as the largest IPO in recorded history (June 19, Build Fast with AI / market reporting) — the listing lands amid an AI-driven public-market reopening that has also pulled forward expected OpenAI and Anthropic offerings; a macro / capital-markets signal worth tracking alongside the broader 2026 IPO wave for its read-through to compute, launch, and satellite-logistics supply chains

Hormuz Day 110 — first commercial reopening after US-Iran MoU signed at Versailles (June 17–18, CNBC / NBC / CBS / NPR / PBS / Al Jazeera) — Trump & Pezeshkian sign a 14-point MoU declaring immediate cessation of hostilities, toll-free Hormuz transit for 60 days, sanctions relief, frozen assets released, and a 60-day window for nuclear-track final deal; 18 transits in the Jun 17–18 window (highest single-window count of the conflict); first movers predominantly Chinese-affiliated (5 of 7 documented); Brent slides below $79/bbl (lowest since early Mar); Goldman cuts Q4 2026 forecast to $80 from $90; CNBC: clearing the backlog "weeks if not months" — mine-clearance, P&I cover, crew changes, shut-in restart all gate recovery; the base-case planning assumption shifts from permanent structural rewire to phased recovery, but landed-cost models should not assume pre-war economics until vessel traffic sustainably recovers above 50% of the ~94/day baseline

Drewry World Container Index surges 12% to $3,969/40ft (June 18) — peak-season demand drives Transpacific and Asia-Europe spot rates higher despite the Hormuz MoU; Intra-Asia Container Index also up 1% to $1,114/40ft; freight-rate momentum has independent gravity from early peak season, pre-July tariff pull-forward, and FIFA World Cup cargo — a second, independent cost-escalation layer for medical-device, sterile-supply, and PPE container moves in Q3 PAR and vendor-cost forecasting

Hormuz Day 107 — Trump confirms Versailles MoU signing; Brent begins pricing in reopening (June 15, NBC / NPR / PBS / CBS) — still zero verified outbound transits but diplomatic picture shifts decisively; 14-point terms include immediate cessation of hostilities, 60-day toll-free transit, sanctions relief, frozen assets released, nuclear-talk window; Brent dips toward $82; base-case planning assumption begins shifting from permanent structural rewire to phased recovery, but mine-clearance, P&I cover, and crew logistics still gate actual throughput

Hormuz Day 105 — fifth straight day with zero outbound commercial transits; Fitch lifts 2026 Brent deck $70→$87 (June 13, straits.live / Fitch / Trading Economics) — no outbound commercial vessel transits across any cargo category (crude, bulk, gas, container, other) for a fifth consecutive day following the IRGC's June 11 formal closure declaration; only a handful of vessels remain in the strait area; Brent steady at $87.33 after Fitch raised its average 2026 Brent forecast from $70 to $87/bbl citing sustained Hormuz disruption curtailing ~13–15M bbl/day of global supply, while Goldman still models >$100 on a prolonged closure — a major ratings agency formally repricing its full-year oil deck confirms the structural-rewire scenario as the firm planning case for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost models

IRGC formally declares the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels (June 11–12, straits.live / Wikipedia Hormuz crisis) — Iran's Revolutionary Guard issues its most explicit closure notice since the war began, stating the strait is closed to all shipping including oil tankers and warning any vessel attempting transit "will be targeted"; physical throughput stays collapsed at ~2 transits/day vs the ~94/day pre-war baseline (≈95% below); Brent holds near ~$92.80/bbl, still 40–50% above pre-war, with Goldman modeling >$100 through 2026 and Fitch seeing no reopening before July — a formal, targeting-backed declaration removes near-term reopening optionality from the base case for sterile-supply, medical-device, pharma-API, and oil-feedstock landed-cost planning

Drewry World Container Index rises another 3% to $3,549/40ft (June 11) — early peak season keeps pushing Transpacific and Asia-Europe spot rates higher: Shanghai-New York +7% to $5,870, Shanghai-Los Angeles +3% to $4,683, Shanghai-Rotterdam +5% to $3,768, Shanghai-Genoa +1% to $5,139; Drewry cites peak season starting earlier than usual as shippers front-load bookings ahead of expected July US tariff changes and 2026 FIFA World Cup cargo; the freight-rate cycle continues to stack on top of the Hormuz disruption as a second, independent cost-escalation layer in landed-cost models

Critical-minerals chokepoint moves back to the front burner (June 10, via All-In w/ Dan Dreyfus) — the "capital-light era" left US rare-earth and battery-metal supply chains concentrated in China, and Beijing's export controls are now squeezing American manufacturing; the bull case for a multi-decade copper supercycle (electrification + datacenter buildout vs constrained mine supply) sits directly upstream of medical-device electronics, imaging components, and battery-backed equipment — another structural input-cost layer for vendor-risk scoring and multi-year capital-equipment planning alongside the Hormuz freight/bunker cycle

Drewry World Container Index surges 23% to $3,433/40ft (June 4) — early peak season sets in across the Transpacific and Asia-Europe trades: Shanghai-LA +31% to $4,565, Shanghai-NY +20% to $5,505, Shanghai-Rotterdam +25% to $3,579, Shanghai-Genoa +20% to $5,089; demand pulled forward ahead of expected July US tariff changes plus 2026 FIFA World Cup cargo; only three Transpacific blank sailings announced for the coming week as carriers anticipate stronger volumes; freight-rate cycle now stacks on top of the Hormuz disruption in landed-cost models

The National (June 3) — "Ships face 4,000-times higher insurance costs to cross Strait of Hormuz"; war-risk premium ~4% of hull value per 7 days vs ~0.001% pre-crisis; commercial traffic at ~4–7% of pre-war ~95/day baseline; 6 P&I clubs withdrawn from Gulf cover; pairs with Gulf News "ghost route" framing — reopening doesn't equal recovery is now mainstream-press reading

Gulf News (June 3) — "Three months of paralysis: the Strait of Hormuz remains a ghost route"; shipowners still refusing to return despite Trump's repeated reopening talk; confidence among owners / insurers / crews / cargo operators hasn't returned; Hormuz Day 95 marker holds the structural-rewire thesis; "reopening doesn't equal recovery" now mainstream-press framing

CNN Business (June 2) — "94 days of paralysis: the Strait of Hormuz remains choked off"; per Kpler only 7 ships transited Friday (5 in, 2 out) plus 4 more over the weekend vs ~100/day baseline; 20% of world oil supply still cut; UKMTO logs a fresh cargo-vessel strike by unknown projectile in northern Persian Gulf (June 1) — 39 vessel strikes / 11 deaths cumulative since war began; The National (May 31): 29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian vessels have exited with US informational support, no escorts

Hormuz week 10 opens with active re-escalation (June 1) — IRGC Aerospace Force strikes US air base used in the Sirik Island telecommunications-tower operation (Hormozgan Province); only 4 vessels transit the strait vs ~95/day baseline; war-risk insurance for tankers now prices at 8.0× pre-crisis with 6 P&I clubs withdrawing cover; Iran's Fars news agency reports Hormuz stays under Iranian control under the current proposal and excludes the highly-enriched-uranium track; Brent rebounds to ~$89.69/bbl on the session (+2.67%)

CMA CGM Asia-Europe FAK ~$4,700/FEU takes effect today (June 1) — Asia-Med pricing $5,500–5,700/FEU; Drewry WCI now riding 4-week upward streak into early peak season; Hapag-Lloyd / ONE / Evergreen still routing Asia-Europe via the Cape; demand pulled forward ahead of the July 1 bunker-fuel adjustment; freight cycle stacks on top of the Hormuz disruption

CNBC long-form (May 30) — "Oil exports through Hormuz might not return to pre-war levels"; UBS says "little evidence" of short-term improvement in vessel traffic or energy flows; crude loadings inside Gulf "extremely low"; analyst consensus that even an unconditional reopen returns Hormuz only to 60–70% of pre-war volumes, with China-affiliated ships moving freely while Western vessels need bilateral Iran agreements; Mercogliano publishes "No Way Out? Breaking Down the Week 9 Strait of Hormuz Closure"

Brent crashes to ~$92.56 (May 30, CNBC / Bloomberg) — almost 19% lower across May, worst calendar month for Brent since COVID, on reports US + Iran tentatively agreed to extend ceasefire 60 days and possibly permit unrestricted Hormuz shipping; Brent dipped below $91 intraday Friday; analysts bracket $90–100 "for at least the next couple of months"; recovery in flows will be slow — mine-clearance, P&I cover, infrastructure repair, shut-in restart all gate transit volume

Hormuz partial-throughput resumes via Tehran-mandated southbound lane (May 28–29, OilPrice / CNBC) — 2 LNG carriers (Pakistan + China) and an Iraqi-crude supertanker (China) transit using the Iran-approved route around Larak Island; ADNOC runs its own fleet in "dark mode" (AIS off); Brent rebounds to ~$97/bbl as US–Iran hostilities reignite; ~10% of normal pre-war throughput; 600+ tankers still stuck in Persian Gulf, 240 outside; ~14.5 mbpd of ME output sidelined

Drewry WCI extends upward streak to 4th consecutive week (May 28) — Asia-N. Europe +11% to $2,707/FEU on early peak-season pull-forward; Intra-Asia Container Index +5% to $1,008/40ft (May 29); Asia-US WC +8% to $2,127/FEU; Asia-US EC -3% to $3,069/FEU; CMA CGM Asia-Europe FAK ~$4,700 takes effect June 1; freight cycle stacking on top of Hormuz disruption

White House rejects Iran state-TV Hormuz "deal" report as "complete fabrication" (May 27) — Trump says US "remains dissatisfied"; Bloomberg: Hormuz traffic "fades to a crawl after supertankers exit"; CNBC: oil falls anyway on deal-optionality; sticking points still uranium stockpile, frozen assets, transit-oversight structure

Hormuz framework wobbles (May 26) — US "self-defense strikes" on Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the strait; IRGC downs a US MQ-9 Reaper; Iran reports "repeated naval harassment" of commercial vessels; Brent crashes 3.28% to $93.25 as IRGC claims coordinated safe-passage of 25 vessels in 24 hrs; Crisis Index 94 (extreme), 30-day Escalation Probability 62 (high)

Trump says Hormuz deal "largely negotiated" (May 23–24) — framework extends ceasefire 60 days, Iran de-mines the strait, US lifts port blockade and issues sanctions waivers, no tolls, Iran resumes oil exports, nuclear track stays open; mine-clearance, P&I cover, and war-risk premium rollback still gate actual transit volume